If you’ve been keeping an eye on PC hardware prices lately, you may have spotted a few headlines suggesting that RAM prices are finally softening after a brutal stretch of increases. That’s technically true — but the full picture is far more complicated, and if you’re a photographer or filmmaker relying on CFexpress Type A or Type B cards, the news is considerably less cheerful.
Here’s what’s really going on, why it matters to pro memory card users, and what you should realistically expect for the rest of 2026.
How Did We Get Here? The Great Memory Crunch Explained
To understand where CFexpress prices are heading, you first need to understand the supply chain disaster that’s been unfolding since late 2024.
The world’s three dominant memory manufacturers – Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron – produce the overwhelming majority of the DRAM and NAND flash chips that power everything from your gaming PC to your camera’s memory card. And since the AI boom took off in earnest, these companies have been quietly redirecting their production lines away from consumer memory products toward far more profitable chips: specifically, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI accelerators like Nvidia’s latest GPUs.
The result has been catastrophic for consumer memory pricing. According to IDC’s February 2026 analysis, this isn’t simply a cyclical supply-demand mismatch – it represents a potentially permanent strategic reallocation of the world’s silicon wafer capacity. Every wafer allocated to an HBM stack for an AI data center is a wafer that won’t become a DDR5 module, an SSD chip, or a CFexpress card. It’s a zero-sum game, and AI is winning.
The scale of the problem is hard to overstate. Industry analysts at ADATA confirmed in late 2025 that DRAM, NAND, and even hard disk drives are simultaneously in shortage – something not seen in roughly 30 years. TeamGroup’s general manager reported that contract prices for certain DRAM and 3D NAND categories nearly doubled month-over-month in late 2025, with a 16GB DDR5 chip climbing from around $6.84 in September 2025 to over $27 by December – a nearly 300% increase in under three months.
So Why Are PC RAM Prices “Dropping”?
The headlines about falling RAM prices deserve some important context. Yes, there have been some spot price fluctuations and limited retail discounts, particularly on older DDR4 stock. But calling this a meaningful downward trend is generous.
What’s actually happening is that a small amount of legacy inventory is clearing at slightly reduced prices in specific markets, creating isolated pockets of deals. The broader picture remains grim. PC Build Advisor’s analysis of the market showed that a standard 32GB DDR5 kit that sold for around $60-$70 in mid-2025 had spiked to over $240 by early 2026 – and analysts suggest a “new normal” of $100–$120 for 32GB kits is the more realistic long-term landing point, even after eventual stabilization.
HP disclosed in its Q1 2026 earnings call that memory costs had doubled in a single quarter and now account for 35% of total PC build materials, up from 15–18% the prior quarter. Dell’s COO described the cost escalation as something the company had “never witnessed.” These aren’t the statements of companies navigating a mild blip.
Relief for PC RAM at scale is now broadly projected for late 2026 at the earliest, with many analysts – including TeamGroup’s general manager – suggesting normalization won’t arrive until 2027 or 2028, when new fabrication facilities in Arizona and Europe are expected to come online.
What Does This Mean for CFexpress Cards?
This is where pro shooters need to pay very close attention.
CFexpress Type A and Type B cards are built on the same high-grade NAND flash technology that powers SSDs, RAM, and enterprise storage – and they’re competing for the same increasingly scarce supply. Unlike consumer-grade SD cards, CFexpress cards require NAND that meets much stricter thermal tolerance and endurance specifications, making them even harder to source as manufacturers prioritize enterprise and AI applications.
The photography world has already been feeling the consequences. According to analysis from PhotoWorkout, memory card prices have tripled in recent months across the board. A SanDisk 128GB CFexpress Type B card that was a routine purchase a year ago now runs around $150 on Amazon. Larger-capacity CFexpress Type B cards – essential for high-bitrate video and burst RAW shooting on cameras like the Canon EOS R3, Nikon Z9, and Sony A9 III – have more than doubled in price since late 2025, with some 512GB options approaching $400–$500 in certain markets.
CFexpress Type A cards, used exclusively in Sony’s Alpha mirrorless lineup and some recent Nikon bodies, have followed a similar trajectory. These are not mainstream, high-volume products, which means they have even less negotiating leverage in the supply chain than commodity SD cards.
The situation came to a head dramatically on March 27, 2026, when Sony announced it was suspending orders for nearly its entire range of memory cards – including CFexpress Type A, CFexpress Type B, and most SDXC/SDHC lines – citing “global semiconductor (memory) shortages.” The company gave no date for when orders would resume. The fact that Sony chose a complete order suspension rather than simply quoting extended lead times tells you everything about the severity of the supply crunch they’re facing.
TrendForce revised its Q1 2026 NAND Flash price forecast in early 2026 to show a 55–60% quarter-over-quarter increase, with NAND wafer costs rising 25% in February 2026 alone. Phison’s CEO issued a stark warning that NAND shortages could force smaller consumer electronics companies out of the market entirely in 2026 – a scenario that would reduce competition among memory card manufacturers and keep prices elevated for years.
Will CFexpress Prices Ever Come Down?
The honest answer: not soon, and not dramatically.
The underlying supply problem – AI data centers consuming a disproportionate share of global NAND production – is structural, not temporary. Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have placed what Reuters described as open-ended orders with memory suppliers, indicating they will absorb as much supply as available regardless of cost. This kind of buyer behavior makes it nearly impossible for camera memory card manufacturers to compete.
New fabrication capacity takes 18 to 24 months to bring online after construction begins. Even the most optimistic projections from industry analysts don’t point to meaningful NAND supply relief until mid-to-late 2027. IDC’s February 2026 report projects 2026 NAND supply growth will come in well below historical norms, at around 17% year-over-year – insufficient to meet demand that is growing far faster.
There is one potential wildcard: Chinese memory maker CXMT recently raised $4.2 billion in an IPO with plans to expand DRAM and NAND wafer capacity significantly. If CXMT executes, it could introduce new supply into the market as early as late 2026 or 2027, which may begin to ease pressure on commodity memory – potentially including camera cards. But this remains speculative, and geopolitical factors add further uncertainty.
What Should Filmmakers and Video Creators Do Right Now?
Given all of this, here’s a practical framework for anyone who shoots professionally or relies on CFexpress cards for their work:
Buy what you need now. Every piece of supply chain data suggests CFexpress prices will remain elevated or continue rising through 2026. Waiting for a price correction that may not arrive for 18+ months is a risky strategy if you have active shooting commitments.
Focus on mid-capacity cards. The 128GB–512GB range currently offers the best balance of availability and value. Very large capacity cards (1TB and above) have been hit hardest by the shortage and are increasingly difficult to find at reasonable prices.
Consider used markets carefully. Used and refurbished CFexpress cards from reputable sellers are one of the few places where pricing hasn’t yet fully caught up to the new reality – but this window is narrowing as awareness of the shortage spreads.
Don’t assume a “sale” price is the new floor. Some retailers are temporarily discounting stock they’re uncertain about being able to restock. A card listed at a price that seems like a deal in 2026 may simply be old inventory – grab it if you need it.
The Bigger Picture
The global memory crunch is a genuinely unprecedented event in the modern electronics era. For the first time in roughly three decades, DRAM, NAND, and hard drives are simultaneously constrained. AI infrastructure has fundamentally redirected the supply chain in ways that will take years to fully unwind – and pro camera media sits near the bottom of the priority list for major memory manufacturers.
For photographers and filmmakers, the implication is clear: the era of cheap, abundantly available CFexpress cards is over for now. Plan your kit accordingly, buy what you need before prices climb further, and watch the NAND supply news closely for any sign that new fabrication capacity is coming online ahead of schedule.
ProCardPrices.com will continue tracking CFexpress Type A and Type B card prices daily so you always know where the market stands.
Sources: IDC Global Memory Shortage Analysis (Feb 2026), Tom’s Hardware, TrendForce, Canon Rumors, PhotoWorkout, heise online, Wikipedia global memory shortage article, PC Build Advisor
